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Five questions I am watching into 2027

यह लेख अभी सिर्फ़ अंग्रेज़ी में है। हिंदी संस्करण जल्द आएगा।

Large asset managers publish an outlook every year. I am not a fund and I do not make forecasts. Instead, these are the five questions I will keep coming back to in 2027, and the numbers I will watch to answer them.

1. Where do crude oil and the rupee go?

Together they set the refinery price layer in every litre of petrol, and fuel feeds into almost every other price in the economy. A weaker rupee makes imported crude costlier even when global prices do not move.

What I will track: Brent crude in dollars, the rupee against the dollar, and monthly CPI inflation.

2. What happens to interest rates?

RBI decisions on the repo rate flow into loan EMIs, fixed deposit rates and bank profits. Small savings rates are reviewed every quarter, so families feel these changes directly.

What I will track: RBI policy announcements, bank FD rates, and the quarterly small savings rate review.

3. Will households keep moving savings into markets?

For years, Indian families kept most of their savings in bank deposits, gold and property. Monthly SIP flows into mutual funds show how fast that habit is changing.

What I will track: monthly SIP data published by AMFI, and how it holds up when markets fall.

4. How strong is rural demand?

Villages and small towns decide sales for soap, biscuits, two-wheelers and tractors. A good monsoon and steady farm income usually show up in these companies' results a few months later.

What I will track: monsoon rainfall, quarterly volume growth reported by FMCG and two-wheeler companies.

5. How fast does fuel demand change?

Electric two-wheelers, CNG cars and better mileage all change how much petrol and diesel India buys. This matters for oil marketing companies and for every petrol pump, including ours.

What I will track: monthly fuel sales data and EV registrations.

I will revisit these five questions in a year and write down what I got right and what surprised me. That is the point of writing them down now.

For education only. This is not a forecast or a recommendation.

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